Low Resolution: Low Res Oscar Week: The Predictions

Sunday, February 25, 2007

Low Res Oscar Week: The Predictions

Well, this is it. I got all my content in before even Joan Rivers has hit the red carpet, which means I win. You'll excuse me, then, if I kind of skimp on the intro to my sure-to-be-inaccurate predictions. I went for straight-up boring in the acting categories, because that's been the trend ever since they shortened the Oscar season. And I think I picked with my heart once too often in the techs. Whatever. I do have to say I find myself utterly compelled to the Best Art Direction race for the first time in ever. That's cool. Anyway, the shoulds and wills and maybes are as follows:

BEST PICTURE
Should: Little Miss Sunshine
Will: Babel
Dark horse: The Departed

BEST DIRECTOR
Should: Paul Greengrass
Will: Martin Scorsese
Dark Horse: Alejandro Gonzalez Iñaritu

BEST ACTOR
Should: Ryan Gosling
Will: Forest Whitaker
Dark Horse: Leonardo DiCaprio

BEST ACTRESS
Should: Judi Dench
Will: Helen Mirren
Dark Horse: Meryl Streep

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Should: Alan Arkin
Will: Eddie Murphy
Dark Horse: Mark Wahlberg

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Should: Adriana Barraza
Will: Jennifer Hudson
Dark Horse: Adriana Barraza

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Should: Little Miss Sunshine
Will: Little Miss Sunshine
Dark Horse: The Queen

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Should: Notes on a Scandal
Will: The Departed
Dark Horse: Borat

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Should: Emmanuel Lubezki - Children of Men
Will: Emmanuel Lubezki - Children of Men
Dark Horse: Guillermo Navarro - Pan's Labyrinth

BEST ART DIRECTION
Should: Pan's Labyrinth
Will: Pan's Labyrinth
Dark Horse: Dreamgirls

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Should: The Devil Wears Prada
Will: Dreamgirls
Dark Horse: Marie Antoinette

BEST EDITING
Should: United 93
Will: Babel
Dark Horse: The Departed

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Should: Phillip Glass - Notes on a Scandal
Will: Alexandre Desplat - The Queen
Dark Horse: Thomas Newman - The Good German

And the rest...

Best Sound Mixing: Dreamgirls
Best Sound Effects Editing: Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest
Best Visual Effects: Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest
Best Makeup: Pan's Labyrinth
Best Song: Dreamgirls - "Listen"
Best Animated Short - Maestro
Best Live Action Short: West Bank Story
Best Documentary Short: Two Hands: The Leon Fleisher Story
Best Documentary Feature: An Inconvenient Truth
Best Foreign Film: Pan's Labyrinth
Best Animated Feature: Cars

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Mission: Impossible - Ghost Protocol
This was deeply stupid but a LOT of fun. It made me forget how creeped out I am by Tom Cruise, it nailed set piece after set piece, and it took the "A Really Great Episode of Alias" level of M:I 3 to the next step of being "A Really Great Alias Movie." In a year when so many movies just would not stop telling us about the magic of the movies and how films could let us see the impossible, Brad Bird stepped up to the plate and actually showed us. That sequence in Dubai is going to be tough for action movies to top for a long while. And I would honestly nominate it for Costume Design because every single person in that cast looked the most fuckable they ever have, and that's saying something. Jeremy Renner and Paula Patton, nice work. B / B+

The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Zodiac meets Seven without the latter's audacity nor the former's studiousness. OR ... the best season of The Killing ever. As a story, it's a smidge too obvious, and I seriously do think it's episodic enough to have been made into a TV series. And I don't want to get into a Gender Studies thing about Lisbeth -- and I could totally entertain ideas to the contrary -- but to me she was pure male fantasy, if a particularly badass male fantasy. Viewed in that light, the rape scene is less bracingly necessary than luridly opportunistic. But I'm not trying to say I was deeply offended by the movie or anything. It's a fun procedural with compelling actors in the lead roles (how does Daniel Craig's insane sexiness continue to sneak up on me?). Obvious casting in the supporting roles is a drawback, but overall, it was far easier for me to look past the story and appreciate Fincher's frigid aesthetics (that ever-present howling wind!) here than it was in The Social Network. B-

Margaret
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Pariah
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Shame
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The Week in TV:

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Fringe (5/6)
I have to say, this left me largely unsatisfied. Not the part about Peter at the end -- I'm confident that's going to get resolved in a way that'll open up season 4 in a big way. But that's actually part of my real problem: this whole episode didn't feel like a conclusion to everything Season 3 has built to but rather a beginning for the next arc. But without satisfyingly resolving what had been built up this season. Like we got an epilogue and a springboard into the next chapter without the actual climax. So much of this episode was spent trying to unbox everything we were presented in the flash-forward that by the time the actual action went down, we had less than 10 minutes to advance the plot in any real way. Still love the show, still think Anna Torv has had a breakthrough season, but this was a definite letdown.

Parks and Recreation (5/5)
How does this show do it? What for all intents and purposes seemed like a purely goofy, guest-star-driven episode with Parker Posey as Leslie's rich-town nemesis (with a b-story about Ron Swanson desperately trying to avoid a birthday celebration in his honor) managed to arrive at no fewer than three emotional high-points. Not one of them felt like cheap sentiment, either, they were completely earned and true to the characters. That Leslie/Ron birthday scene was set up so slyly, it was like the twist ending of a thriller. This is what a show can do when it's built on such a strong foundation of characters. Well fucking done.

30 Rock (5/5)
What a weird episode, with a random Kenneth moment at the end that I'd almost buy as an actual plot point considering how well it's supported by several seasons of "Kenneth is ageless" jokes. Liz being tormented by Tracy was funny, if honestly sad, and Jenna works best when opposite Will Forte. But really, this was all about Victor Garber, for me. Kudos to the show for nabbing such a great guest star for such a fun role -- I don't know why "wool" is so comedy-friendly a concept, but it just is. It's very wool.

RuPaul's Drag Race (5/2)
Not as explosive as past seasons' reunions -- the Shangela-Raven feud seems to be at least nominally active, but neither seemed all that invested in propagating it. ...Well, Shangela was, kind of. But besides one more tired rehash of the Heather vs. Boogers battle (my stance: the Heathers were throwing shade like good queens should; the Boogers took it personally because they're insecure and not seasoned; advantage: Heathers), and Alexis Mateo made a lame attempt to shame Michelle Visage for actually judging her, but mostly it was just a rehash of the season's big moments. The big story for me was confirmation that my love for Mariah was not misguided. She may have been eliminated for fully supportable reasons (she didn't have the chops when it came to performance), but she showed up with a killer face and a sparkling attitude. See you on Drag U, girl!

Game of Thrones (5/1)
Damn it, Game of Thrones! You got me hooked last week with that sweet scene of Jon Snow gifting his lil' sister with a sword. Why won't you just let me love you?? This week's episode took two steps forward (Catelyn continues to be a character worth cheering for; Jaime Lannister suddenly has layers beyond the clichéd sister-fucking), but then two steps back with even more tedious political hoo-ha, more indistinguishable characters, and more of Joffrey and Vinerys, possibly the most one-dimensional characters on television. On the bright side, I really think that child-bride sex slave and her hulking rape-monster of a husband are gonna make it!